A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
